Archive for June, 2017

WHAT THE RISE OF ROBO–CARS MEANS FOR EVERYTHING ELSE Recommended by Paul Ferraresi

Adam Smith wrote about the “Invisible Hand” in 1776 explaining about the free market economy.

Later in 1942 Joseph Schumpeter wrote about “creative destruction” as free market’s way of delivering progress.

Both of these economic principles were presented beautifully in a May 20, 2017 article in Barron’s. The title, What the Rise of Robo–Cars Means for Everything Else.

http://www.barrons.com/articles/how-robo-cars-will-impact-everything-else-1495858783

MY FAVORITE QUOTES ON INTEGRITY AND CHARACTER by Paul Ferraresi

If standard of living is your major objective, quality of life almost never improves, but if quality of life is your number one objective, your standard of living almost always improves.

- Zig Ziglar –

The quality of a person’s life is in direct proportion to his or her commitment to excellence, regardless of his or her chosen field of endeavor.

- Zig Ziglar –

SAVINGS TRICKS THAT WORK recommended by Paul Ferraresi

THE NICKEL BUILDER

Begin saving 5 cents on the first day, and increase the amount you set aside by a nickel each day: a dime, then 15 cents and so on for a year. The most you’ll put aside is $18.25 on day 365. By then your pot will have grown to $3,339.75.

THE LINCOLN LOGGER

Set aside every $5 bill you receive as change in an envelope stashed away at home. Raye Scott, a real estate agent in San Diego, says she saves about $1,400 a year that way – then spends it on something like artwork or jewelry.

RESETTING YOUR INVESTMENT STRATEGIES by Paul Ferraresi

John Maynard Keynes had a great quotation: “A speculator is one who runs risks of which he is aware, and an investor is one who runs risks of which he is unaware.”

So which are you?

Americans for more than 200 years have participated in the stock market as “passive investors”. A more common term used is a “buy and hold” investor. Over a long period of time this has proven to be a good way to accumulate wealth. Mind you, not an optimal way, but rather, a good way. Just set it, leave it alone, add to the account on a consistent basis and deal with the inevitable ups and downs.

Wall Street pundits continue to sing this happy tune of buy and hold as the only way to invest (you see if you took another approach then they would have to “resell” you each time in order to get you back into the market after each correction). Many people do not have the knowledge or time to produce better results, hence, they stay passive investors.

Things began to change for passive investors in the 1970’s as computers came onto the scene of investment management. Many people today do online investing with discount brokers or with their retirement accounts thinking they are being active. Yet, they are still passive investors, in that they go through the ups and downs of the markets. Funny these same investors get out of the market after it corrects. Conversely, as the markets reach new highs they start buying.

These activities confirm academic research which shows the small passive investor has obtained about a 2% return while the markets have averaged 10% – 12%. The results: passive investors, trading or trying to time the market does not work.

Today, worldwide trading is being done 24 hours per day. So while you are sleeping, markets, and your wealth, can be crumbling. Thus, the challenges for the passive investor will continue to increase in an exponential way.

Many passive investors who hold accounts at, say, Vanguard, Fidelity or others have their monies invested in good mutual funds and think they are safe. Unfortunately, as listed in the fund’s prospectus (you have read every page), it states that the manager can never move to more than a 10% – 12% cash position. Consequently, when the market corrects the small investor panics and sells their mutual funds. With only 10% – 12% of assets in cash, this forces the fund manager to sell more shares in a declining market which creates an even larger debacle in share prices.

An alternative to passive money management is known as Tactical Money Management (TMM). Here, selected professional money managers, using computer algorithms, not timing, move client’s money into and out of the market. This is not done on a daily, weekly or monthly basis. Rather, the moves are done when changes in money flow or activities in the market change (their “secret sauce” algorithms).

A Tactical Money Manager’s objective is to capture 70% – 80% of the market upside while eliminating 70% – 80% of the downside. They never pick the exact top nor the exact bottom. At anytime they can move your money into 100% cash or 100% in the market or some combination. The results compared to “passive investing” have been remarkable on the investors behalf.

So, if you think the market will continue to go up and up and never drop then stick with passive investing. If you feel there will be a correction, and a pretty severe correction then you may want to investigate Tactical Money Management.

I believe passive investment strategies will come under severe selling pressure in the coming years. Many investors have their core (and retirement) portfolios in these passive strategies. If you are prepared to ride out another 2001 – 2002 or 2008 – 2009 and then go through what I think will be and even longer and weaker recovery (until our debt issue is fixed), then stick with your passive strategies.

If you are looking for another option let me offer you one.

Contact us at (713) 871-5919 or at Jamie@fgmci.com and we will be pleased to educate you on the time tested successful Tactical Money Management strategies.

Here is to your safe wealth building strategies.