Archive for Investments

The Non Energy Crisis

A client, and good friend, S. Fish sent this link to me. The presentation is long, but, it is Really worth watching. No… there aren’t any jokes or “canned” laughter in the program! It is information to add knowledge to you on why oil prices are high. Make the “investment” of your time, digest it, and, gather more information to help you build your opinion. Weed through the promotion, marketing and agenda. You will find knowledge. Seek out professionals in this area and confirm or deny the hypothesis.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3340274697167011147

Turmoil in Equity Markets

The U.S. stock markets have been in a tail spin and have been classified as a “bear” market ( A bear market is defined as a period when stock index prices drop at least 20%).

Since World War II there have been 13 bear markets. One occurring about every 5 years with an average duration of 2 years. In every one of these occasions the media tried to convince the public that the sky was falling and the world was ending. As always it was not true. In each case buyers of stocks profited handsomely on the next wave upward.
Should you sell and “panic out” of the markets??? NO! Here is my approach.

For instance, I don’t believe I can time the equity market, in the sense of being able to go in and out opportunely. So I never have to spend any time trying to anticipate the markets, nor change my portfolio in anticipation of market movements. Buy-and-hold, for all its tribulations, is therefore a bedrock principle to me. Equity diversification – I can’t make a killing, but I can’t get killed, either – is another such principle. So I don’t have to spend any time or energy trying to figure out whether to overweight growth or income, small-cap or big-cap, Poland or Peru. Minutia has no attractions for me; principles do.

Every empirical study shows that the long term investor always wins.

Exchange Traded Funds

ETFs, which stands for exchange traded funds, are a relatively recent innovation. The first commercially available ETF – the SPDR (Standard and Poor’s Depository Receipts) which tracks the S&P 500 – was launched in 1993 by State Street Global Advisors and the American Stock Exchange. Then in 2000, Barclays Global Investor’s iShares came to the market, dramatically accelerating the popularity of ETFs. By the end of 2007 there were 575 ETFs to choose from. In the past 3 years they have become the fastest growing packaged investments product. ETFs were originally marketed as a product for sophisticated institutional investors. Even today, State Street estimates 50% of the ETF marketplace is made up of institutions. But 40% is now advisor and wealth manger driven (and 10% comes from individual investors making purchasing decisions on their own).

ETFs can appeal to almost anyone. They can serve many masters at the same time. The original ETFs were all based on US equity indexes, be it the S&P 500 or 1500 or the Russell 3000. But the newest generation of ETFs have “enhanced” features which have positioned them to take advantage of new markets and to utilize new functions beyond passive exposure to US equities.

ETFs now offer access to domestic and international equities, fixed income, currencies and commodities, and new choices are constantly being added. For instance, investors can now purchase ETFs for oil, gold, and even timberland companies.

One common perspective found among both wealth advisors and providers of ETFs is that these aren’t “either/or” products. That is, a portfolio can deploy both ETFs as well as actively managed mutual funds. ETFs can be used alongside traditional investments in nearly countless way, in a core satellite approach, for access, or to gain leverage. Most of the funds flowing into ETFs come from individual stock positions rather than active mutual funds. And people are using them to monetize other positions when they are not sure about a market. Active traders are moving from individual stock positions to ETFs to diversify. Additionally, within the ETFs universe, individuals can mix and match between fundamental and traditional products just the way they would allocate their equity mutual fund exposure into various styles.

International real estate ETFs offer broad access in this hard to reach asset class in a single purchase. No one investment vehicle is perfect which is why we use several including ETFs. We like ETFs because they offer broad diversification, are tax efficient, and are low cost. Also, there is no style drift. You really know where you are. Every investment vehicle has its advantages and its disadvantages. For ETFs the list of potential concerns people should be aware of includes the transaction fee involved, which is comparable to buying a stock. Investors who may be dollar cost averaging and adding to their investments in very tiny amount, will find that a mutual fund is a more efficient way to go because of lower transaction fees.

More broadly, the bigger risk is that nearly one third of ETFs are new. They may include specialized niche products completely inappropriate for retail investors. Because of the recent proliferation in ETFs, everyone must now perform basic due diligence about the sponsor. People now need to dig deeper to the next level, asking: how is the ETF trading? What is the liquidity of the stocks? Who are the market makers? The capital providers? Everyone needs to use the same level of due diligence for ETFs they employ with active managers. For many individuals, these concerns are outweighed by the long list of advantaged of ETFs. Gross returns from an investment are brought down by the fees and taxes, making it challenging to reach your long term goals. ETFs get both of these right, paving the way for a wonderful investment experience.

Mutual Funds are a great way for one to accumulate wealth, diversity and have professional management. There are a few downside factors. Say someone has only $10,000 to invest. Many Mutual Funds require a $1,000, $5,000 or $10,000 minimum. This will reduce the number of asset classes one can invest in, unless one has $100,000 or so to invest. There are 158 asset classes and all studies show the “average” investor should be in 8-12 different asset classes. Second, if you want to buy or sell a mutual fund your order is not executed until 4 P.M. EST. Additionally, should there be a run on the market, and, investors sell the Mutual Fund you are in, then, as one of the remaining investors you get stuck with the capital gains at the end of the year.

With ETF’s you can buy them just like a stock. You can purchase just one (1) share. Each ETF share trades just like a stock. So, in theory, if you have only $1,000 to invest you could buy 10-15 different ETF’s thus diversifying completely. ETF’s trade by the second just like stocks. Your buy or sell order is executed immediately. Similar to individual stock ownership, should another holder sell the ETF you are in, that action does not affect your gain or loss. You determine when you sell and can control your tax situation.

        EFTs Unique Advantages

Diversification. They allow an investor to buy exposure to an entire pool of securities.

Transparency. Since ETFs are typically designed to track an index – the components of which are clear – investors know exactly what they are buying.

Cost. The cost of owning an ETF is low, sometimes exceptionally low. For example, the fee for a municipal bond ETF is only 25 basis points versus 100 basis points for a comparable mutual fund.

Liquidity. ETFs are traded on exchanges, just like a stock, creating ease and flexibility of trading. Like any stock in a brokerage account, ETFs can be sold long or short, with stop loss orders, etc.

Tax Efficiency. Because they track an index, there is typically less turnover than in a mutual fund. Additionally, redeeming institutional investors can swap stocks with one another, further reducing capital gains.

Women, Money and Power Study

      Financial Personality Worksheet

This study was conducted by Allianz Insurance Company. Although it was created for women it is okay for men to take the quiz. If you are married then each person should take it separately.

When done compare your points with your personality type and then with your partner.

This questionnaire was designed to help identify your financial personality. Understanding your particular needs also will allow your financial professional to better understand your decision-making process and personal approach to planning for your financial future. Please take your time and carefully answer each of the following eight questions.

Using the following scale how much do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

Strongly Agree (5 pts)
Somewhat Agree (4 pts)
Neutral (3 pts)
Somewhat Disagree (2 pts)
Strongly Disagree (1 pt)

1)_____ I feel I am confident when it comes to managing money and investing.
2)_____ I feel I have adequately planned for retirement savings/security.
3)_____ I feel I am educated when it comes to managing money and investing.
4)_____ I feel I have sufficient knowledge about money and investing, and I am very involved in the management of my long-term savings, and investments.
5)_____I feel I am clear about my financial goals and my plans to achieve them.
6)_____ I feel I am highly responsible and take initiative when it comes to money and investing.
7)_____ It is very important to me that I always have a complete understanding of my household financial situation.
8)_____ When in a relationship, I like to collaborate with my partner in financial decisions.

_____Total Points

Total Points Financial Personality
35-40 Financial Initiator
27-34 Financial Analyzer
20-26 Financial Collaborator
14-19 Financial Avoider
8-13 Financial Dreamer

The Emerging Roles of Financially Empowered Women

Now that you have completed the financial personality worksheet you will have a better understanding of your unique financial personality. You can become more in tune with your behaviors as they relate to money and finances. This knowledge will position you to take the next step of working with a financial professional, and will help you assume control of your financial future.

When interpreting your results, please keep in mind that you are the best judge of the accuracy of a personality description that reflects your financial behavior. If your point score falls toward the end of a range of points for a particular financial personality, and you feel that behavior description does not adequately portray you, read the personality that follows it to determine if it’s a better fit.

Percentage of Respondents

Financial Dreamer “Cinderella” 8%

You haven’t had a confident history with money. In fact, you may not have had the opportunity to be responsible for your own money and investing in the past, and as a result may feel intimidated when it comes to managing your own finances. Because you lack experience and knowledge, you may feel helpless and hope that someone else will “take care of you”. In fact, if you’re in a relationship, you usually defer all financial matters to your partner. You have the most to gain by consulting a financial professional with whom you feel comfortable and can trust.

Financial Avoider “Alice in Wonderland” 17%

You’re concerned about your current finances and your financial future. However, you don’t feel confident enough with your financial knowledge to make informed, independent decisions to resolve your financial problems. You often feel overwhelmed by all the choices and potential solutions available to you. You know that you would benefit by seeking the help of a financial professional. You just have trouble taking the first step.

Financial Initiator “Wonder Woman” 8%

You’re self-assured, empowered and optimistic in most of your endeavors. Specifically, you’re extremely sophisticated in your financial knowledge and confident in your ability to make independent, informed financial decisions. You’re quite clear about your financial goals and typically know how to achieve them. You take the initiative to work with a financial professional who you feel has the necessary industry experience to provide you exceptional advice and guidance.

Financial Collaborator “Belle” (from Beauty and The Beast) 17%

You’re extremely balanced in your life. When in a relationship, you’re healthy, happy, and cooperative. You provide your family financial comfort and stability. You are confident with your ability to understand and resolve financial issues. However, you prefer not to be the primary decision-maker. Even though you may not always choose to be in the forefront, you and your partner share equally in all financial decisions and actions, including working with a financial professional.

Financial Analyzer “Goldilocks” (Comparison shopper) 35%

You have a good understanding of household finances and take initiative in thoroughly researching investment opportunities and tracking financial results. You’re a comparison shopper, an avid saver, and rarely purchase something you can’t afford. Your behavior is reflective of an analytical and disciplined approach to making decisions. Chances are you’ve worked with a financial professional in the past. However, when selecting a financial professional, it’s important to you to work with someone who is inclusive and collaborates with you.

Now you know who you are. It is time to get on track, or, will you be like Scarlett O’Hara … “I’ll think about it tomorrow”.

Timing The Stock Market

Study after study shows that trying to “time” the market is a waste of time. You see, it is not “timing” the market, but rather, time in the market. Research has shown that 93% of a portfolio’s rate of return is due to the Asset Allocation. Specific security selection and market timing make up the other 7%. Then, why would someone waste their “time” trying to time the market when it makes up about 3% of the return.

If you study the reports from the Investment Company Institute you will see the “small” investor still tries to time things. In retrospect, they pour money into the market and hot mutual funds at a market top. Then, they do massive selling (liquidation) at market bottoms. You see they buy high and sell low…is this you??

Smart investors set their asset allocation and make buy/sell decisions when their allocations get out of alignment. This way there is no emotion in the decision. The newspaper headlines and TV “talking heads” create “greed or panic” in an investor’s thinking.

One other error that most investors make with “timing” is trying to “guess” which group, stock or mutual fund will be hot next! They switch back and forth between “hot” funds or stocks. Have you ever been on a freeway in a traffic jam? Have you ever constantly changed lanes trying to get ahead? Did you notice after all that maneuvering you are no further ahead than the “blue truck” that was next to you at the start? This is the same action as trying to guess the next “hot” area. It is a futile effort.

To make my point I have attached a chart from Morningstar Advisors. It shows major asset classes and when they were “hot and cold.” It is random. You can not time the market or guess the next hot area. So, do what the rich or thrivers do….set your allocation and adjust it when it gets out of alignment.

MorningStar Chart
View Full Image (Open in New Window) or Download PDF

My mom always said….If you want to be poor do what poor people do. If you want to be rich…do what they do. Mom was right!

You know….stick with discipline…or regret the results.